On April 10, 2025, SPIA showcased findings by SPIA panel members and researchers in a session titled “Emerging rigorous evidence of the reach and impacts of CGIAR research” at CGIAR Science Week in Nairobi.
As Panel member Sujata Visaria said in her opening session, the Standing Panel on Impact Assessment (SPIA) is an independent advisory body focused on promoting the generation of credible evidence of the impact of CGIAR’s research portfolio.
The work presented in this session stemmed from Phase 1 of the Country Studies, where systematic, country-level efforts were made to accurately estimate the reach of CGIAR’s innovations, serving as a starting point for assessing impacts.
The discussion highlighted how by using rigorous methods to uncover evidence of reach and impact, we can arrive at a nuanced understanding of adoption as well as dis-adoption, and the benefits or otherwise to end-users.
Watch the full recording here.
1) Measuring the adoption of complex bundles: The “1 Must-do, 5 Reductions” Rice Cultivation Package in Viet Nam
Presenter: Sujata Visaria
As part of the Viet Nam country study, SPIA researchers and panel members found themselves grappling with the problem of accurately measuring the country-level adoption of CGIAR innovations that were complex bundles of recommendations. An example is 1 Must-do, 5 Reductions (1M5R), a set of practices for sustainable rice intensification promoted by the Viet Nam government, that owes partly to scientific research at IRRI. The recommendations span 6 domains – farmers are asked to use certified seeds at a reduced seed rate, in combination with lower fertilizer, pesticide and water use, and to lower post-harvest losses. For various reasons, simply asking farmers whether they follow this bundle of practices is unlikely to yield the truth. Acknowledging this, SPIA took a multi-step approach – conducting qualitative fieldwork to understand how farmers think about and articulate their cultivation choices and then using this knowledge to inform quantitative survey question design. Sujata gave examples of how this approach changed the structure of survey questions and the resulting changes in adoption rates.
2) Impact of long-term large-scale (LTLS) intervention with biofortified crops: the case of sweet potato in Uganda.
Presenter: Julius Okello
Julius shared evidence from the first national-level study to assess the long-term impact of Vitamin A fortified, Orange-Fleshed Sweet Potato (OFSP) on child health in Uganda, a country with historically poor nutrition indicators.
Other than the Green Revolution, there is at present limited evidence on the large-scale impacts of agricultural innovation, partly due to the typically gradual and organic diffusion of such innovations, and the lack of data on these efforts. Julius’s study contributes to this literature, and to an estimation of the full returns on Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D), particularly given AR4D’s objective to improve nutrition outcomes.
Given the extensive consumption of sweet potato in Uganda, biofortification is a promising intervention to address nutritional deficiencies at scale. Using a panel data set spanning 11 years (2011–2023) together with the CGIAR’s staggered roll-out of OFSP vines across districts, the authors are able to causally identify the effects of this innovation. They find that children exposed to OFSP under age 2 and 5 showed significant improvements in height for age. OFSP also reduced morbidity for children 0–2 years old.
3) Agricultural Diversity Under Stress: Insights from SPIA Uganda Report 2025
Presenter: Emmanuel Letaa
Emmanuel drew upon his experience as a SPIA pre-doctoral fellow to present key findings from the SPIA Uganda Report 2025. A highlight was SPIA’s work on DNA fingerprinting biological field-samples from six crops, which helps to understand patterns of varietal adoption and genetic diversity in Ugandan farms. The data shows that farmers adopt complex planting strategies – either intentionally or not – with large diversity even within a single plot.
The data also shows that several agricultural innovations are reaching farmers on a large scale, albeit at very different rates. Structural barriers appear to limit the spread of innovations. Seed systems in Uganda are a major bottleneck — with farmers mixing or recycling seed material, often unknowingly diluting varietal traits. As a result, although breeding innovations may embody traits such as plant resilience or biofortification, these benefits may not fully reach farmers. The report suggests that there may be returns to considering policies and investments to improve seed system functioning, strengthen extension services, and rethink scaling strategies.
Access full report here
Read the 4-pager brief here
4) Child and women welfare implications of the female labor participation in the Ethiopian agricultural sector
Presenter: Astewake Bimr Melaku
SPIA post-doctoral fellow Astewale briefly introduced the findings of the second SPIA Ethiopia report [read full report here], highlighting the dynamic changes in the estimated reach of innovations. Strikingly, even after multiple crises, aggregate adoption rates in Ethiopia appear to have increased rather than declined. However, while a few innovations have reached more than 5 million households, most were adopted at a smaller scale—a typical pattern in healthy innovation ecosystems, where numerous ideas are tested but only a select few achieve widespread adoption. Drought-tolerant maize, crossbred poultry, and forage grass showed the largest increases in adoption between 2019 and 2023.
Astewale’s own research focusing on the floriculture industry has found that growth in high-value exports has created job opportunities for women and has increased income and autonomy. However, likely due to poor labor conditions for these women, there have been negative side-effects as well: women working in this sector report lower subjective wellbeing and, strikingly, their children appear to have worse nutritional outcomes.
Astewale’s work points to the lack of minimum wage and working hour regulations in Ethiopia as possible causes for the unexpected adverse effects of women’s participation in high-value agriculture.
Audience questions and interventions: Unpacking Methodology, Scaling, and Adoption
Participants responded to the presentations with thought-provoking questions about methodology and findings.
In answering these questions, SPIA members emphasized caution when generalizing results from small-scale RCTs, warning against extrapolating findings without accounting for spillover effects or general equilibrium effects, and highlighted that impact assessments should consider the full range of contextual factors.
On adoption measurement, presenters explained that while CGIAR generates many innovations, not all are ultimately scaled—hence the focus on documenting and measuring those for which there’s indication that adoption is likely to be high.
The discussion touched on methodological challenges like analyzing farms with multiple crops and interpreting DNA results, and the difficulty and counterproductivity of surveying farmers about their entire farming practices. Participants proposed ideas like co-designing surveys with the participants, and refining the hypotheses around nutrition studies.
Finally, SPIA members clarified that SPIA’s mandate requires it to focus on impact as defined in the CGIAR’s five impact areas, which measure progress toward the SDGs. SPIA acknowledges however that there are many steps on this path toward impact, and appreciates that wide-ranging efforts are needed to make this progress possible.
Watch the full recording here.
